Why Evidence Still Struggles in African Education Policy: Lessons from the Garbage Can Model

Abstract

The blog article explores why research evidence often fails to significantly influence education policy in Africa, despite abundant production by institutions like the African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC), by applying the Garbage Can Model of organizational decision-making developed in the 1970s by Cohen, March, and Olsen which depicts policies as emerging from the unpredictable convergence of four independent streams: problems, solutions, participants, and choice opportunities, rather than a rational, sequential process; in African education contexts, this results in chaotic, reactive policymaking where decisions are driven by political timelines, crises, or donor pressures rather than robust evidence. Illustrative examples include the hasty adoption of digital learning platforms during COVID-19 as a quick response to school closures, without adequate evidence of efficacy in low-resource settings lacking infrastructure and teacher training, and Kenya's Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC), introduced to move away from rote learning but marred by inadequate preparation, limited stakeholder consensus, confusion, and a weak evidence foundation. Key challenges to evidence uptake involve misaligned timelines policy windows opening abruptly while research is slow and often arrives too late, too technical, or disconnected from political realities leading to "uninvited" evidence that fails to reach decision-makers due to insufficient sustained engagement. To address this, the article recommends shifting from passive evidence production to active strategies: co-producing research with stakeholders (ministries, teachers, unions) for relevance and trust; creating concise, policy-ready outputs like briefs for rapid decision moments; proactively shaping agendas through communication, storytelling, and public engagement; tracking evidence flow in government systems; and fostering long-term bridges via partnerships, fellowships, and embedded roles, ultimately advocating for deliberate, inclusive, evidence-anchored policies to better serve African learners and avoid accidental, suboptimal outcomes dominated by speed and politics.