The Attribution of Human Health Outcomes to Climate Change: Transdisciplinary Practical Guidance.

Abstract

For over 30 years, detection and attribution (D&A) studies have informed key conclusions in international and national assessments of climate science, providing compelling evidence for the reality and seriousness of the human effects on the global climate. In the early 21st century, D&A methods were adapted to assess the contribution of climate change to longer-term trends in earth system processes and extreme weather events. More recently, attribution research helped quantify the health and economic impacts of climate change. Here we provide guidance for transdisciplinary collaboration in designing, conducting, interpreting, and reporting robust and policy-relevant attribution analyses of human health outcomes. This guidance resulted from discussions among experts in health and climate science. Recommended steps include co-developing the research question across disciplines

establishing a transdisciplinary analytic team with fundamental grounding in the core disciplines

engaging meaningfully with relevant stakeholders and decision-makers to define an appropriate study design and analytic process, including defining the exposure event or trend

identifying, visualizing, and describing linkages in the causal pathway from exposure to weather/climate variables to the health outcome(s) of interest

choosing appropriate counterfactual climate data, and where applicable, to evaluate the skill of the climate and process or empirical health model(s) used in D&A research

quantifying the attributable changes in climate variables

quantifying the attributable health impacts within the context of other determinants of exposure and vulnerability

and reporting key results, including a description of how recommendations were incorporated into the analytical plan. Implementation of guidance would benefit diverse stakeholders including researchers, research funders, policymakers, and climate litigation by harmonizing methods and increasing confidence in findings.