Lagging Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Patterns in Selected Countries

Abstract

The demographic transition— a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality— in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) does not reflect trends in other parts of the world. The process has been both irregular and slow-paced, with stalls and even reversals in some countries. Despite SSA’s generally sluggish demographic transition, the region has the potential to reap the ‘demographic dividend’: the sustained economic growth resulting from a change in the age structure of a country’s population associated with the shift in fertility and mortality rates from high to low. Sustained declines in fertility and mortality produce a population with a larger working-age group (labor force) relative to the number of dependents, which can boost the economy if there are employment opportunities and effective policies. A smaller number of children in a household generally enables more investments per child and frees up women’s time to participate in employment, thereby generating more household savings, which can facilitate economic growth.